Volcanoes, Airplanes and Quantifying Risk

On April 19th, 2010, IATA, the chief trade group representing airlines, issued a press release which states in part: “IATA criticized Europe’s unique methodology of closing airspace based on theoretical modeling of the ash cloud. ‘This means that governments have not taken their responsibility to make clear decisions based on facts …’ said [Giovanni] Bisignani [...]

Why We Need Good Data

Recently, while working on input for a decision tree, I ran into a scenario that reminded me of the fact that we cannot improve a decision simply by applying a tool or technique. We also need good data.

Here is a hypothetical example: Let us assume we are a contractor who is evaluating a fixed bid [...]